More than a third of Mainers are not confident their votes will be counted accurately

Democracy ProjectDuring this election year, the BDN’s politics team is focusing on how political polarization, cynicism and apathy is changing civic life in Maine. Read our full explanation of the series, see all the stories and share ideas by filling out this form.
Mainers remain among the country’s most civically engaged residents, but more than a third are not confident votes in the upcoming presidential election will be counted accurately, and a majority are pessimistic about the future of the nation.
Those findings are part of the first “Civic Health Report” that Colby College’s Goldfarb Center for Public Affairs, Public Engagement Partners and the Maine Community Foundation released Wednesday. It draws from a survey of more than 1,000 Maine residents and U.S. Census Bureau data to reveal Mainers’ mindsets and their views ahead of the Nov. 5 election.
The most timely takeaway was 35 percent of Mainers do not have confidence in an accurate counting of the votes in the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, while 60 percent expressed confidence. The report found 88 percent of Democrats are confident about the tally, while 44 percent of Republicans and 45 percent of unenrolled or independent voters feel the same.
That observation is not entirely new in Maine or other states, as Trump and Republican allies have falsely claimed the 2020 election that Trump lost to President Joe Biden was “stolen” or “rigged.” A University of New Hampshire survey last year found one in four Mainers falsely believe Trump won in 2020.
Rather than solely pointing to Trump or disinformation to explain the confidence disparities, the study also examined dissatisfaction with the ranked-choice voting system that only Maine and Alaska use in presidential elections. It found 43 percent of Mainers believe ranked choice voting gives them “more choice,” while about a quarter felt it gave them “less choice.”
“When a third of your residents are not confident, to dismiss that as mere partisan grandstanding is unwise,” said Nicolas Jacobs, an assistant professor of government at Colby College, who was one of the report’s lead researchers.
The report found many positives, such as how Mainers rank first in the nation for public meeting attendance, and they have led or nearly led the country in voter turnout for several decades, with more than 70 percent of Mainers voting in the 2020 presidential election compared to the national rate of 66 percent. But it shined a light on lingering worries for the rural state with the country’s oldest population by median age.
Namely, 60 percent of Mainers said they do not think young kids growing up here will have “a better life than their parents,” with 33 percent thinking they will and 35 percent unsure, per the report. Upstate and rural residents were more likely than downstate and urban residents to believe youth will need to move away to find better economic opportunities.
The report found 70 percent of residents are “hopeful” about Maine’s future, but under 50 percent of Mainers are hopeful about the future of the country and democracy. The report did not collect data on race and ethnicity, as the researchers said the sample size in a state that is roughly 92 percent white was too small to allow for reliable statistical analysis while saying additional follow-up research is needed.
The report touched on immigration, an issue that has become more testy in a state of nearly 1.4 million people as Maine has welcomed thousands of asylum seekers in recent years while struggling with a persistent housing shortage.
A plurality, or 46 percent, of Mainers surveyed for the Civic Health Report said “new people moving to the state” is “both good and bad,” while 35 percent called it a “good thing” and 18 percent called it a “bad thing.” High-income and more educated Mainers were more likely than low-income or less educated residents to be positive about newcomers, the report found.
“There is an opportunity here, but the challenge for the state is making sure that opportunity is equitably presented to new Mainers and old Mainers alike,” Jacobs said.